Three Curtains

[Matthias]

You are a contestant on a game show. There are three curtains. Behind one of the curtains is a new car. You are asked to choose one of the curtains. Lets say that you choose curtain #1. The host of the show - who knows where the car is so as not to end the game prematurely - opens curtain #3 and of course there is no car behind it. The host now gives you a choice. You can stay with curtain #1 or you can change your choice to curtain #2. The question now is: would it be to your advantage to stay with curtain #1, or would it be to your advantage to change to curtain #2 or would there be no advantage either way?

Why second guess? Barring something more substantial than the host of the show simply asking me if I want to change my mind or not, I would stay with my original decision -> curtain #1.

 

[Matthias]

You are a contestant on a game show. There are three curtains. Behind one of the curtains is a new car. You are asked to choose one of the curtains. Lets say that you choose curtain #1. The host of the show - who knows where the car is so as not to end the game prematurely - opens curtain #3 and of course there is no car behind it. The host now gives you a choice. You can stay with curtain #1 or you can change your choice to curtain #2. The question now is: would it be to your advantage to stay with curtain #1, or would it be to your advantage to change to curtain #2 or would there be no advantage either way?

Why second guess? Barring something more substantial than the host of the show simply asking me if I want to change my mind or not, I would stay with my original decision -> curtain #1.

What's your reasoning for doing that?

Second guessing is symptomatic of an unstable mind.

 

[Matthias]

You are a contestant on a game show. There are three curtains. Behind one of the curtains is a new car. You are asked to choose one of the curtains. Lets say that you choose curtain #1. The host of the show - who knows where the car is so as not to end the game prematurely - opens curtain #3 and of course there is no car behind it. The host now gives you a choice. You can stay with curtain #1 or you can change your choice to curtain #2. The question now is: would it be to your advantage to stay with curtain #1, or would it be to your advantage to change to curtain #2 or would there be no advantage either way?

Why second guess? Barring something more substantial than the host of the show simply asking me if I want to change my mind or not, I would stay with my original decision -> curtain #1.

What's your reasoning for doing that?

Second guessing is symptomatic of an unstable mind.

Why do you think that switching wouldn't be to your advantage?

What reason is there for me to think switching would be to my advantage?

There is no advantage in a game of pure chance.

 

[Matthias]

What reason is there for me to think switching would be to my advantage?

What would you do it after your initial pick of curtain #1, and before any curtain was opened, the host told you that you could change your pick from curtain #1 to BOTH curtains #2 and #3?

Laugh.

 

[Matthias]

What reason is there for me to think switching would be to my advantage?

What would you do if after your initial pick of curtain #1, and before any curtain was opened, the host told you that you could change your pick from curtain #1 to BOTH curtains #2 and #3?

I had an additional thought on your hypothetical question but I’m in the process of being restricted so I’m not sure if I should be responding any more in this section of CTZ. With that in mind, my apologies to @CoreIssue if the comment I’m making in this post is not in line with the spirit of his intended action. I won’t start any new threads in this section of the Board and will refrain from responding to any posts in this section of the Board not addressed specifically to me.

***

The host of the fictional game show has tempted me twice now: The first temptation was to doubt. The second temptation was to greed. How persistent will the host be? Will he tempt me again, and, if so, with what?

The host, it seems to me, is playing the role of the devil.